The UNECE Timber Committee has just conducted joint market discussions for the first time with the International Softwood Conference during its 65th session from 8-11 October 2007. They analyzed current markets developments for forest products in 2007 and forecast markets for 2008 in view of current policy issues. Major themes were: 1. softwood market developments, and 2. wood energy and wood mobilization. The main conclusions are available below.
Wood raw materials. Strong sawnwood and pulp markets in 2006 brought roundwood prices into record highs. Total removals in the UNECE region reached 1.3 billion m3, only marginally below the exceptional level of 2005 that was influenced by significant volumes of storm-damaged timber, especially in Sweden. European removals are forecast to increase by 5.4% in 2007 as Swedish removals recover from the post-storm level of 2006. Looking ahead to 2008, removals are forecast to remain almost unchanged, in spite of the drastic reduction in housing starts in the US. The introduction by Russia of rising export taxes on roundwood, with the full impact for softwood being felt by January 2009 and for hardwood (mainly birch) by January 2011 will undoubtedly cause a significant reduction in exports. Russian exports of roundwood are expected to peak in 2006: softwood log exports at 20.5 million m3 are forecast to halve to 11.0 million in 2008. Some countries have come to depend heavily on Russian-sourced roundwood and already have begun to look for other sources, as well as investing in Russia.
Wood energy. The increasing use of wood for energy throughout the UNECE region, driven by policy measures and high oil prices, is reshaping markets for wood and presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the forest and wood processing sectors. The rapidly evolving market dynamic presents a challenge also for public policy development, which will have to try to balance the needs of the established wood products sector and the bio-energy sector.
Demand for processed fuels such as wood pellets is at record levels, resulting in shortages and higher prices in parts of Europe. Manufacturers, who until now have relied on sawdust as their main raw material, have to look to other materials, such as wood chips and roundwood, to keep pace with the burgeoning demand. One source is the expanding volume of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada. Currently about 80% of pellet production from North America is exported to Europe.
Recent efforts to improve data quality have revealed that in many countries much more wood is used for energy than previously reported. Official figures often do not include: 1. wood that was harvested and used by individuals and which did not enter the market, and 2. wood from outside forests and recovered wood.
Sawn softwood. Overall in the UNECE region, sawn softwood markets are forecast to decline from record levels in 2006, due to the collapse in the US housing market. From a high annual rate of construction of 2.3 million housing starts in early 2006, the Timber Committee heard a forecast for only half that amount in 2008. US consumption of sawn softwood is expected to fall by 10.8% in 2007, and a further 2.3% in 2008, down to 90.9 million m3. Production in North America (US and Canada) is predicted to fall by 5.8% in 2007, and another 1.0% in 2008, down to 116.1 million m3. US imports are forecast to fall even more, by 17.1%. With low sawnwood prices, and a weak US dollar, many European exporters have withdrawn from the US market, and although the US remains Canada’s prime export market, Canadian suppliers are exploring opportunities in offshore markets. Low sawnwood prices have also triggered the maximum export charges provided for under the renegotiated Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) on Canadian shipments of sawn softwood to the US. A SLA dispute in autumn 2007 is being submitted to an arbitration tribunal. North America is forecast to return to being a net exporter of sawnwood.
In contrast to North America, European sawmillers are forecast to increase production in 2007, by 4.3%, and another 0.4% in 2008, to a record 116.2 million m3. European mills which had in 2006 experienced log supply problems and higher prices, to some extent driven by energy policies, suddenly found a reversal in January 2007 when two windstorms caused heavy damage to forests in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Poland and southern Sweden. As roundwood supplies returned to normal levels over the year, prices rose, along with sawnwood prices. European consumption of sawn softwood is forecast to grow too, peaking in 2007 at 108.1 million m3.
The Russian sawmilling sector expects benefits from export taxes on roundwood, and both foreign and domestic investment. Production is forecast to leap by 8.9% in 2007 and by a further 11.8% in 2008, to reach 24.1 million m3. Most of the increase is destined for export markets, which could rise by 9 to 10% in each of the next two years, reaching 18.4 million m3 in 2008.
The Committee discussed the new requirement that structural timber in the European Union have a CE mark from September 2008. Companies in several supplying subregions, including many in Russia, were not ready for this requirement and this could constrain Russian exports to Europe.
Sawn hardwood. Sawn hardwood markets are forecast to remain buoyant in the UNECE region. European markets are forecast to grow by about 2.4% in 2007 for both consumption and production, with little changes in trade. In North America, sawn hardwood production, similar to sawn softwood, is forecast to fall in 2007, but by much less, only 1.7%, to 28.5 million m3, and a recovery is forecast for 2008. Europe, U.S and China are demanding European and American white oak, and sawnwood prices rose in 2007. Beech demand is up too, with a rise in prices. A new study in the US aims to ensure hardwoods are traded with confidence in terms of legality, coinciding with a proposed Senate bill to combat illegal logging. Developments in tropical sawnwood according to the International Tropical Timber Organization include a slowing decline in forest cover, a decrease in log exports in favour of value-added processing and continued illegal logging. Tropical sawn softwood trade is not currently significant on global markets as the majority of plantation-produced softwoods are used domestically.
Wood-based panels. European panel markets are forecast to continue growth in 2007 and 2008 in production and consumption, despite rising energy and wood raw material costs and global competition. Rising wood prices, in part driven by renewable energy policies, and resulting uncertainties with regard to wood availability, as well as difficulties to source supply from small forests owners are challenges confronting the European woodworking industries. MDF and OSB are expected to increase production and expand market share at a fast pace, due to higher demand from the construction industry, the revival of the furniture sector, packaging and flooring. Plywood production is expected to remain stable, facing difficulties because of severe competition from South American and Asian countries. The production of particleboard, by far the most important panel type in Europe, has been increasing steadily, though it lost market share due to the rapid expansion of other panel types. It is forecast to reach a record 47.5 million m3 in 2008. Capacity expansions mainly in Eastern Europe are projected, mostly to satisfy domestic demand.
North American panel markets are forecast to remain relatively stable at 2006 levels, with slight increases for 2008, despite a sharp decrease in construction activity. After a decline of particleboard production in 2007, an increase in 2008 is forecast. OSB production is expected to continue gaining market share from plywood. Plywood lost market share, mostly to imports, especially from China.
Russian particle board and MDF production is forecast to grow in 2008 by 8% and 52%, respectively, over 2007 levels, although they remain low in comparison with other subregions. Until 2008, increases in production are forecasted for domestic use by the construction and furniture industry and exports, mainly to neighbouring CIS countries. The trend of increasing production of plywood is forecast to continue, to satisfy export markets, mainly in the EU. Plywood is by far the most important panel type in the Russian Federation, which produces and exports more plywood than any other European country.
Paper, paperboard and woodpulp. The paper and paperboard sector in the UNECE region is marked by expansion in Russia, where consumption is forecast to increase by 5.1% between 2006 and 2007, contrasting with the situation for other regions where little change is expected in production or consumption. European consumption will remain around 97 million m.t. from 2006 to 2008, and North American consumption just below 101 million m.t. over the same period. In other parts of the world, stronger increases were reported for many grades. Asian production grew by 9% in 2006, compared to 3.2% for Europe and 0.1% for North America. Capacity expansion for paper has been correspondingly stronger in Asia and Latin America than in Europe or North America. Pulp consumption is expected to remain stable in all three sub-regions, although European pulp production is forecast to increase by over 1 million m.t. and exports by 0.6 million m.t. The Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) reported that in its member countries (most of Western Europe) in 2006 consumption of recovered paper exceeded consumption of virgin pulp for the first time, despite exports of recovered paper to Asia of over 7 million m.t.
Summary table of market forecasts for 2007 and 2008 (.pdf, 218 kb)
Tables of country forecasts for 2007 and 2008 (.pdf, 405 kb)
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